Florida In Tropical Storm Emily's Possible Path

For the first time this season a tropical storm has Florida in its possible path, though forecasters say it’s far too early to tell if the state will stay in the storm’s sights.

Tropical Storm Emily, the season’s fifth named storm, formed Monday near the island of Dominica and is expected to move to the west northwest at about 12 mph the next few days.

National Hurricane Center forecasters expect the storm to make a more northerly swing later in the week and head up the United States coast by the weekend. Though forecasts don’t call for Emily to become the year’s first hurricane, the storm could come close.

On Tuesday, hurricane center forecasters expected Emily to become within a whisker of hurricane strength by the weekend. But there wasn’t a large amount of certainty in that early an outlook.

Computer models used for intensity forecasts are highly divided with some taking Emily to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday or Sunday. Others have it falling apart over the jagged terrain of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Track models are more uniform in keeping Emily off Florida’s East Coast. The hurricane center has the Tampa Bay area by the western edge of its track cone of uncertainty, meaning the region is in the area the storm could possibly hit. The center of the storm could travel anyplace in that cone, so even just outside isn’t entirely safe.

If it stays on the projected path, it could be far enough away to bring no serious impact to local weather.

Wake-up Call

Emily’s distance gives folks time to take steps in case the storm becomes a threat. These early steps will make it easier when the next storm hovers over the horizon, or the one after that. The first step, experts universally agree, is have an idea what you’ll do if a storm is going to hit. Have a plan.

A key to that is knowing whether you live in an evacuation zone. Much of what you can do next depends on this. If your home is in one of those colored areas on evacuation maps, you’ll have to leave for one storm or another. You can also find out online using your address at your Hillsborough County's emergency management website.

The closer you live to the coast or a river, the more likely it is you’ll be told to leave for a storm. The zones are based on storm strength, so stronger hurricanes mean a larger evacuation.

But whether you evacuate or not, you can still figure out what to do. That can start with talking with family members. Do you have elderly relatives to care for? Pets? Prescriptions to have filled? Special medical needs or diet? Where are all your legal documents? Doing anything could put you ahead of your neighbors in Hillsborough, the county’s Emergency Management website says.

Visit http://www.tbrpc.org/tampabaydisaster/hurricane_guides2011.shtml.

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